Europe May Yet To Be The Main Beneficiary In This Refugee Crisis.

By Arthur M. M. Katabalwa.

Young migrant/refugees walk along a road in Eastern Europe.

I have been asked many times to comment on the immigration crisis that we are seeing unfold Europe. Many people are on the move from war torn countries like Syria and Libya. There are people moving from countries like Eritrea and Ethiopia all trying to go to Europe.

First, I must say that my heart goes out to those who have been forced out of their countries for whatever reason. If ones desire to move from their country of origin to another involuntarily that is truly tragic. Even if it is for economic reasons.

Fast forward to today and we have people in rickety boats going across the Mediterranean sea. We have kids drowning off the coast of Turkey. Lampedusa in Italy has been overwhelmed by new arrivals. Local services are being stretched to the limits. Where the refugees have found a land border, they have started walking literally to Germany, the only country which has open its borders.

Several years ago, I took a trip to Sangatte in Northern France near the port of Calais. Sangatte in previous years as it is today had been turned into a staging area where people who wanted to go to the United Kingdom stopped. The Red Cross built a huge holding centre which just created the reverse effect by attracting more people here. So on one day, I got the ferry from Dover, England to Calais. I then drove the short distance to Calais.

Refugees in Sangatte with ferries to UK visible.

As an African, I managed to blend in with the immigrants there. The situation is dire with sanitation nearly nonexistent. I looked at the people whom I found there and I felt sorry that certain factors, stories in their lives had drawn them to this desolate place. What was further distressing was that the white cliffs of Dover, the beacons to what many saw as "Eldorado" look tantalizingly close. One can even make out communications masts on the English side of the channel. It is an optical illusion and many people have died trying to sail across. To make matters worse one has one of the biggest shipping lanes in the world.

But apart from war and strife in their own countries, what is leading many heading to the shores of Europe and what is the reality when one gets there. Countries like The United Kingdom have projected what is termed as "soft power" through things like The British Council. This organization promotes the UK abroad and when those who have had access to its services see what is billed about these islands, they see freedom and prosperity. A land where all rivers are crystal clear and spend lazy afternoons at the village square playing cricket, speaking less of the welfare system.

The point that is being ignored here is the effect that this mass movement of people is first of all going to affect where they are coming from. We see from most of the photos showing mostly young men on the move. This is going to have adverse effects on the productivity of these countries at a later date where they are coming from. If in the future these countries can settle down they have lost a generation of people at a time when they are most productive.

Europe on the other hand is looking on at all these refugees coming into their societies nervously. They have the right to because in most cases, a number of the refugees don't actually share the same kind of predominant Christian culture in Europe. But what is the driving force for them is the freedom and the chance to make a better living for themselves.

The brutal destruction of cities like Kobane, Syria have sent many fleeing.

This is where countries like Germany are choosing to let them all in. An open door policy. A lot of these people are well educated and highly skilled. Now, with a master stroke and with a bit of luck, they could have doctors and teachers coming in whose education particular European did not contribute a penny to. And for the lower end jobs that the locals may not want to do, a ready workforce that will not be bothered at first about employment laws.

The United Kingdom had migrants from Ireland who came in and did all the manual labor paving driveways and such like. Then later on we had people come in from the Balkans. They also came in and did all sorts of jobs like plumbers and delivery drivers. Africa also in the 90s sent in a huge wave with people doing all sorts.

But on close scrutiny, there is evidence that at a certain time, these immigrants turn back and go home. As I have argued earlier this trend is slowly being backed up in Uganda and other African countries where economies are growing. The Polish people are also heading home.   But what kind of work force is being sent back? They are not at the prime of their productivity cycle. In many cases they are probably going back to set up their own small businesses. Chances are that they will never claim their pensions.

Europe therefore gains in this misery in many ways. When people migrate their and they are in the prime of their youth, they are not generally taking a lot from the state apart from where social services are concerned. But isn't this offset by the tax receipts that these people are contributing from their wages? And when they finally return home when they are not that productive, they are not a burden on the health service as they are not using it.

There are many worries in Europe about the huge injection of migrants and refugees. There is going a lot pressure on social services. Migrants must be encouraged to integrate not multiculturalism. That just creates a two tier society. But the long run economic benefits may surprise all. Unfortunately they may be dire consequences where all these people are coming from. 

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